Have you ever wondered what it takes to be an oil and gas explorer, or how they think about the world? In a series of articles on Exploring the Explorer I want to put a focus back onto these professionals to give insight about their careers in exploring for oil and gas deep below the land and ocean floor.
Based on initial results of a small survey of exploration professionals I will share insights on topics such as inspiration for geoscience, the explorer personality, motivation, resilience, the rush of discovery, and views on moral issues such as corruption and climate change.
Today’s insight is all about the urgency of the Energy Transition and Net Zero.
Mud cracks, summer 2022, England, UK
4) How urgent is net zero?
Today’s insight is about the views of experienced explorers on the urgency of the Energy Transition and how long they think it will take for renewables to provide all the world’s energy needs.
Climate Change
Do explorers agree that climate change is happening and that it is a major moral issue for ongoing oil and gas exploration? Yes, they certainly do. Respondents to the survey indicated that climate change is the #1 moral issue for fossil fuel exploration (Figure 1), closely followed by the issue of the social impact caused by the industry. Other aspects such as greed and corruption also rank high as topics of moral concern.
Would a poll 20 years ago have shown a different response? Probably yes, however it is clear from the snapshot today that explorers are acutely aware of climate change and the need for transition to the use of renewable energy sources.
Figure 1. Responses on the top moral issues for oil & gas exploration
The Energy Transition
How urgent is the Energy Transition? My own view is that it is very urgent for the global community to promote and build up multiple strands of renewable energy capacity and at the same time dial back progressively on fossil energy dependence. What seems daunting is the need for the many sources of renewable energy in each country to be facilitated by new legislation, which must survive the whims of the political process. This probably means in reality that the energy transition will progress at very different speeds in different parts of the world.
A 75% majority of survey respondents said that the Energy Transition is urgent, or very urgent, with one saying “It is very urgent - should have happened yesterday,” another saying, “Urgent if not too late already.” Explorers see that the urgency is there, but also understand that reality bites hard. To summarise the responses, explorers consider that a transition to renewable energy will extend well beyond 30 years from now and possibly continue to the end of the century. One respondent offered a reality check - “Transition of energy baseload will take 50 years, just like all other transitions.” That may be the case if the current transition happens at the same speed as in the past, such as biomass to coal, and coal to gas. However, renewable energy does not consist of a just two or three major sources like in the past, such as a ton of coal, a barrel of oil, or a cubic metre of gas. What we are likely to see during the Energy Transition is a rapid diversification of energy sources and a shift in the balance of power in terms of those countries holding the strongest renewable energy portfolios. The diversity of the energy spectrum will be an important factor to differentiate from the energy transitions of the past and has the potential to lead to a different pace of change.
Can we move faster?
The handful of commonly used fossil energy sources benefit from high energy density and have in the past century been the mainstay of cheap and plentiful energy for human development. Now we enter a stage where a multitude of renewable sources will be harnessed, some of which, such as wind and solar, have already been deployed with capacity and at pace. Hydropower, tidal energy, wave energy and geothermal, for example, are all in the mix too and will be deployed at different scales, and speeds, in different parts of the world depending on indigenous wealth of those resources. Nuclear also finds a new place at the table as a powerful, non-carbon, energy source. Surely there is potential in this mix to beat the 50-year transition benchmark and move faster to renewable energy? One respondent was sceptical - "China, India & Russia will take decades to move as they will see commercial advantage not to do so - last man standing.” Another view was pessimistic about technology - “Technology development is not happening fast enough to make it happen at the pace that is needed.” However, in addition to climate change, war in eastern Europe is also exerting an effect to increase the pace of change, as progressive governments see the benefit to invest in both energy security and sustainable energy as twin goals.
Explorers are pessimistic
We can indeed move faster in the Energy Transition if government legislation, technology breakthroughs and venture capital all move rapidly together. However, according to this small survey, explorers think that the Energy Transition will be slower and more protracted than any of the current Net Zero forecasts imply because of the mixture of geopolitics, technology challenges and what one respondent referred to as the ‘boiling frog mentality’ creating inertia for change. They believe we will remain dependent on oil and gas for longer than most contemporary predictions, even if we all wish it to be sooner.
In the next Exploring the Explorer insight article we will bring the focus onto geology and investigate the views of explorers on the importance of geological fieldwork as a basis for success.
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